One source country: concentration risk in medical travel to India

01

What the numbers show

The totals are steady at first glance. DD News reported a written reply in the Lok Sabha that drew on Bureau of Immigration data. It gave about 6.59 lakh foreign tourists for medical treatment in 2023 and 6.44 lakh in 2024. One lakh is one hundred thousand. The same reply put January to November 2025 at more than 4.5 lakh, a provisional figure.

The monthly picture is sharper. Business Today, citing Ministry of Tourism data, reported that medical value travel fell 43% year on year in November 2024 and 59% in December 2024. An analyst quoted in that report said India had scaled down visa operations for Bangladesh. Patients who already held visas kept travelling. New applications were constrained.

The money followed the patients. Business Standard reported that Crisil Ratings estimated revenue from patients in Bangladesh fell 30 to 35 per cent in the 2024 to 2025 financial year. Business Standard also quoted ICRA saying international patients make up 3 to 9 per cent of revenue at most listed hospitals. That is a small share for a large group. For a clinic built around one corridor, it can be most of the business.

02

Why one corridor is a risk for patients first

This matters because a patient who has already started a care plan should not lose it to a visa queue, and an operator who depends on one corridor cannot protect that patient. A visa delay does not pause a follow-up plan. A patient waiting at home still needs records, a named contact and a clear next step.

It also matters for the operator. A team trained for one language and one referral network has no fallback. When enquiries drop, the temptation is to cut prices or chase volume with offers. Both damage trust. Neither fixes the cause.

For India, the cost is in reputation. Business Today pointed to a report by ICRIER, a research institute, which found that Bangladesh accounted for 69% of India's medical tourists in 2022. The same article noted that Thailand draws patients from a more diverse set of countries, including China, the Middle East and Europe. India's case to the world is stronger when patients from many regions choose it on evidence they can check, not only because it is the nearest option.

A market you cannot lose overnight is one you have spread on purpose.

03

How I would measure the exposure

I would start by measuring the share of enquiries, arrivals and revenue that each source country provides, every month, on one page. Three numbers per country are enough. Enquiries show demand. Arrivals show conversion through visas and travel. Revenue shows what the business would lose.

Next, I would set a ceiling. The right level depends on the business, so I would not copy a number from elsewhere. The owner is the head of international patient services. The review happens monthly with finance. If one country passes the ceiling for two months running, the next quarter's plan must name the corridor that will balance it.

I would also keep a short watch list of what can close a corridor. Visa rules, flight capacity, payment routes and political events all belong on it. The note on each item says who checks it, how often and what we do if it changes.

04

Building a second and third corridor

A new corridor is an operating project, not a marketing campaign. I would choose markets where the clinic can serve patients well, not just where ads are cheap. That means language support in place, a price document translated and checked, and a named coordinator who works in the patient's time zone.

The standard must not change between markets. The same consent process, the same written price and the same follow-up plan apply to every patient. A second market that gets a weaker version of the service will not stay.

I would also be honest about the trade-off. Spreading demand costs money before it earns any. A team learning a new market converts fewer enquiries at first. In my judgement that cost is lower than the cost of an empty calendar when one border tightens.

05

What not to do when a corridor narrows

Do not blame the patients who could not travel. They are people with care plans, not a lost market. Keep their records ready and their contacts open. Many will return when travel eases.

Do not answer a drop with discounts. A price that moves under pressure tells every patient the first price was not real. Hold the written price and work on the source of demand instead.